USD/JPY might need some help to secure a breakout above 150, which could take the form of hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell or clear signs of disinflation Japan's CPI data on Friday — not to mention lack of MoF intervention.

Powell is expected to maintain the view that to-date rate hikes might suffice and that financial conditions have tightened significantly recently.

The 336k surge in non-farm payrolls, CPI steady at 3.7% and a very robust 0.7% rise in retail sales since keeping a January hike on the radar and the first cut more likely in July than June.

It's also plausible that 2-year Treasury yields now at 5.2% are peaking as they approach the current Fed funds rate.

The BoJ's ultra-easy policies are in question ahead of Friday's core CPI, forecast at 2.7% versus the 3.1%-3.4% range that has prevailed since March. The BoJ is seen raising its 2023/24 inflation forecasts, which should favor 10-year JGB yields testing the current 1% BoJ cap.

The wild card is whether the MoF resumes yen buying, as they did after 2022's 32-year 151.94. If so, a 150 breakout could end very badly.